Gamblers have many times fallen prey to the gambler’s fallacy. People even think it is a true concept. However, to put it simply, the gamblers’ fallacy does not contain any reality. Still, people have believed in it many times and suffered huge losses. What is the reason why the gambler’s fallacy is still famous? You need to know what this fallacy is so that you can avoid it. Not giving in to a gambler’s fallacy will help you stay focused on your games and not deviate from your original plan. Continue reading to know what gambler’s fallacy is, and how to identify and avoid it.
What is a gambler’s fallacy?
Gambler’s fallacy is the notion that the past events that have happened can influence future events. If an event, let’s call it ‘x’, has happened multiple times in the past, then the gamblers tend to believe that another event ‘y’ is due to take place. In that belief, the gamblers will bet on ‘y’ happening. If it is a game that has two possible outcomes, one ‘x’ and another ‘y’, we can never predict the future. Each time when you play the game, both have 50% odds of taking place.
Therefore, just because ‘x’ took place 10 times in a row, you can not expect ‘y’ to take place the 11th time. No matter how many turns are over, the possibility of ‘x’ and ‘y’ happening is 50%. Even if you play a game 1000 times, and ‘x’ happens 1000 times, it will not make sure that ‘y’ will happen the 1001st time. In the 1001st time, ‘x’ still has a 50% possibility of happening. However, ‘x’ taking place 1000 times is the tiniest probability in a billion times.
How does a gambler’s fallacy impact the gambler?
Gambler’s fallacy is most common in games such as poker, roulette, and slot games. Imagine you are playing poker, and that most of the people at the table have won. And only a very few remain, including you. But you can’t expect that there will not be another winner. Also, in another hypothetical scenario, just because the first new ones had some bad cards, you can not expect everyone else to have the same.
When it comes to roulette, things can get a bit more complicated. Gamblers may bet on red when a few of the previous spins have been black. However, no matter how many turns have been over, there is no guarantee that the next one will be red. The notion that exists among gamblers which leads them to believe all the incidents are connected with each other is what lets them fall for gambler’s fallacy.
Now let us see how you can identify this so that you can prevent yourself from falling for the gambler’s fallacy.
How to avoid the gambler’s fallacy?
- Acknowledge the existence of the gambler’s fallacy
The first step to avoid falling for the gambler’s fallacy is to identify its existence. When you are already aware that such a thing is prone to happen, you can keep yourself away from it. Before you start playing a game, check whether the gambler’s fallacy is possible. If it’s, always keep an eye out for this. Make sure that you may possibly get similar feelings.
- Think clearly
Thinking clearly is the most important part of the game. Most of the gamblers are there to win the game. It is common among all players to feel a need to win the game and make money. Therefore, there is a high chance that they think emotionally. While playing the game, you have to keep aside your emotions and think clearly.
- Do not make impulsive decisions
Emotional thinking can always lead to impulsive decisions. Make sure that you are aware of the game rules and description. Also, the first step is to accept the fact that you have only very low odds of winning the game. Therefore, it is advised that you stick to your original plan and do not deviate away from it at the last moment. It may be your original strategy or your bankroll management. But, you have to stick to it always.
- Take advantage of the gambler’s fallacy
When a certain output has been repeated a certain number of times, people tend to believe that it is due for the other output to happen. You can take advantage of the gambler’s fallacy by always remembering that, no matter how many times a certain output has occurred, there is no guarantee that it will not happen again. Also, keep in mind that any of the past occurrences in gambling are not interrelated to any other. Therefore, it is not ideal to make any decision based on that.
