Analysts at Rekt Capital, a prominent cryptocurrency analytics and educational firm, are suggesting that Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market could be on the cusp of a major price breakout.
In a September 24 X post, Rekt Capital observed that during previous market cycles, Bitcoin has broken out from its reaccumulation range between 154 and 161 days after the halving event. The analyst noted that this year’s BTC halving was held on April 20, which was 157 days ago, indicating that the market is currently within the breakout time frame.
Rekt Capital Analyst Says Bitcoin’s Price Breakout Could Happen Early 2025
During the 2016 halving cycle, Bitcoin broke out of its range-bound accumulation phase 154 days after the supply of new BTC was reduced by 50%, while in 2020, the cryptocurrency broke out 161 days after the halving event.
The analyst also pointed out that Bitcoin doesn’t need to follow this trend in a copy-and-paste manner, but if it were to do so in this cycle, then BTC should be breaking out from the re-accumulation range in the next handful of days. Most probably this week.
They also compared periodic returns, highlighting that September is historically a bearish month for Bitcoin, and it is in the fourth quarter of the year that the asset sees better returns. However, to everyone’s surprise, on September 21, Bitcoin posted its highest-ever return for the month this cycle.
Bitcoin’s value rose around 9% this month, leapfrogging its second-best September in 2016 when the price increased by 6%. Furthermore, nine of the past eleven October have posted positive returns for Bitcoin. During the bull market months of October 2017 and October 2021, BTC saw greater gains of 48% and 40%, respectively.
BTC must break its all-time high of $73,738 to enter a new price discovery range, and the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency is only 14% away from achieving that level. However, Bitcoin has been trading sideways since hitting its peak six months ago.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could experience a breakout around late 2024, but the strongest rally might not occur until early to mid-2025. This will be similar to 2021’s parabolic rally, culminating in a 427% price surge early that year.
Federal Reserve’s Rate Cuts Are Bullish For Bitcoin
In addition to the technical analysis, macroeconomic factors have also been strengthening the bullish case for Bitcoin. Last week, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate on the US dollar by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 4.75%-5%, marking the first time the rates have been reduced in over four years.
The rate cut also signaled the beginning of a new liquidity cycle, as low interest rates generally increase money flow into risk assets like Bitcoin and stocks. Fed officials also hinted at more rate cuts before the end of the year, adding more liquidity to the market.
While the central bank is shifting its strategy from inflation control to economic growth, the macroeconomic backdrop for Bitcoin is becoming increasingly favorable. As liquidity increases, institutional interest in BTC could rise, and the crypto asset’s post-halving scarcity could drive prices even higher.
By combining the fractal pattern highlighted by Rekt Capital with the macroeconomic factors, one could assume that the stage is set for a major Bitcoin rally in 2025. If the current re-accumulation phase plays out as anticipated, BTC may surpass its all-time highs early next year.
BTC Breakout Is In The Hands Of The Market Bulls
Following the most recent bull run, which propelled BTC to above $63,000 per token, bears have seemingly taken control of the cryptocurrency’s price action. On September 23, Bitcoin prices briefly moved above $64,700 before dropping 3.3% to hit a daily low of $62,580. While the token managed to recover marginally, bulls haven’t been able to keep its price above $64,000. This is indicative of a strong bearish presence near the price level.
For Bitcoin to continue the rally, its price would need to move above the current resistance level near $66,300, which will help BTC rally to the next resistance near $70,800. On the flip side, if the rally fails to gain momentum, then Bitcoin’s price will drop to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 50-day EMA support confluence near $60,400. Breaching this immediate support level could force BTC to test the next support level near $57,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $63,394 – down 0.40% over the last 24 hours.
