EV, an acronym for Expected Value is a sports betting strategy, and knowing it can help you while placing bets. When you are placing a wager on sportsbooks, you always look at the odds different teams have for winning, projected by the sportsbook. However, the odds by sportsbook may not be the real ones. So, why do sportsbooks offer a different possibility of winning for the teams, when the reality can be different from what they project? Well, it is essential for the sportsbook to do and otherwise, they will not stay in the business. Sportsbooks always even out the odds of winning. In some cases, one team may have huge winning odds over the other. However, the bookmaker evened out this big disparity in the odds by adding more odds to one side and deducing odds from the other side.
What is the Expected Value of Sports betting?
You have to be familiar with the concept of EV in sports betting. It is the value that the sportsbook expects to happen in the game. It is what they find as the true odds each team has for winning. However, this may not be the odds that they project the gamblers. Therefore, it is essential that you get to know what the real value is in sports before you place a bet.
By finding the EV you can come across the difference between the expected odds a player has versus the sportsbook has. The sportsbook always assigns the odds of winning that they want us to see on the betting lines. When we enter a sportsbook and look at the betting line, that is all that we see. We do not see the real odds nor do we see what the bookmaker has done.
In some cases, when a match is happening between two teams, everyone may know that one team has more advantage and power than the other. However, you can never see this huge difference when you enter a sportsbook to place a bet on these same teams. This is because the oddsmaker always evens out the big differences between two teams. They always try to get people to bet on both sides of the team. If one team has more odds of winning, everyone knows that, and the sportsbook does the same to the betting lines. What will happen?
Everyone will end up betting on a team with odds of winning, right? And, if that team really does win the match, it is a huge loss for the sportsbook. Therefore, it is essential for the sportsbook to make sure that the odds of both teams look appealing to the eyes of the gambler.
How does EV work?
Imagine that a particular sports event takes place multiple times. Each time it has different outcomes. In that case, the average outcome of this particular sport can be said as the expected value. EV is generally used to figure out the bets which can provide value in the long run. Using EV you can calculate the probability of getting profit from sports betting when you are wagering over a fairly long period. If you place a bet using this strategy, it will help you to determine the average amount that you may win or lose in each of the bets that you place. However, note that you will be required to place the same bets in the same match. You can not use EV to place one match in one casino in a certain event and then go to another sportsbook and place a bet on a totally different event.
Let us look at the EV Formula
| (Winning probability x Amount won per wager) – (Losing probability x Amount lost per wager) = Expected Value |
This is the standard formula used to calculate EV. It is the one used all over the world.
EV Tips
- You need to be adept in sports betting skills. To calculate the EV and follow that in sports betting, you need to have deep knowledge of the market and the particular sports event that you are betting on. You will have to conduct research on the team, their players, their strategies, and more. The real odds the game has and each team has, you have to discover that on your own.
- The veteran players start to look at the betting lines days before the game begins. Sometimes, you can do that even weeks before the match. This is the time when it is believed that the betting lines are not handicapped. By the time the match is up, the bookmaker starts to handicap and even out the huge difference in odds.
When you look at EVs, you will be able to see positive bets and negative bets. Let us look at what they are:
Positive EV bets (+EV) are the ones that prove to be winning and provide you with profit over a long period of time. Negative EV bets (-EV) are the bets that will turn out to be lost over a period of time. Therefore, you need to have a strategy before you choose the EV bet that you are placing.
Read More: How to Master Arbitrage Betting
