Ryan Rasmussen, a researcher at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, said Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to set a new all-time high by the end of this year, and there is only half a chance that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Ethereum ETF.
While sharing his insights in an interview with Yahoo Finance on February 26, the analyst said the apex cryptocurrency is on course to achieve a new all-time high of at least $88,000 by the end of 2024.
Early Success Of Bitcoin ETFs Has Bulls Expecting BTC To Target ATH Before Halving
Rasmussen’s views were also reflected by traders who expect Bitcoin to top its lifetime peak of $69,000 by March. They say the catalyst for the price increase is the rising institutional demand and early success of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
On-chain data reveals that “newbie whales”, referred to as investors who have been holding over 1,000 BTC for less than 155 days, are now sitting on record levels of unrealized profit. This indicates optimism and belief among newer investors that Bitcoin’s price will appreciate.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, noted that with less than two months left before the halving on the Bitcoin network and the expectation that the US Federal Reserve could slash interest rates on the dollar in the middle of the year, BTC prices will have a support level at $50,000.
He expects the leading crypto asset’s price to fluctuate and “hit historical highs” in March.
Lee also highlighted the trading volume of nine Bitcoin spot ETFs trading in the US reaching a new high of $3.2 billion last week. He said this indicates institutions’ strong bullish sentiment towards the cryptocurrency.
Bitwise Analyst Says Demand Shock Due To Halving Will Drive Up Bitcoin Investments
Meanwhile, Rasmussen said Bitwise is “tremendously happy” with the success of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. He pointed out that the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), which began trading alongside BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity’s (FBTC) funds on January 11, has amassed $1 billion in inflows, while the overall Bitcoin ETF market has seen more than $15 billion in asset flow.
He also predicted that the spot Bitcoin ETFs will drive up crypto prices as institutional investors get into the buying frenzy. Rasmussen believes that with the kind of demand shock coming into the market with the ‘Halving’ in April, it won’t be surprising to see the price of Bitcoin rising, before adding that other assets like Ethereum will also experience the same.
Chances Of The SEC Approving A Spot Ethereum ETF Is 50/50
Sharing his thoughts on the fate of spot Ethereum ETFs, the Bitwise analyst said he only sees a 50/50 chance that the funds will be approved by the SEC. He noted that by May the securities watchdog will either approve, deny, or “kick it out to another round of applications in the future”.
The SEC is set to make a decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application by May 23. The Commission is also expected to concurrently decide on other similar applications as it did with the spot Bitcoin ETF proposals in the past.
Rasmussen’s viewpoint was also echoed by Bitwise’s global head of research, Matt Hougan, who previously predicted a nearly 50% chance that the spot ETH ETFs will gain approval come May. In contrast, analysts at Polymarket are less optimistic, saying the odds of approval are at 41%.
Rasmussen pointed out that the SEC had continually rejected or delayed Bitcoin ETFs until faced with a lawsuit from Grayscale concerning the dismissal of its proposal to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) from a close-ended fund to a spot market-traded ETF.
He is uncertain whether a similar lawsuit will be necessary to initiate the process with the spot Ethereum ETFs.
Additionally, Rasmussen touched upon other important events influencing the crypto market, such as the upcoming block reward halving on Bitcoin, Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade, fluctuating NFT trading volumes, and Solana’s price growth.
He suggested that the market is “rising from the ashes” of the disastrous 2022 and is now entering a multi-year bull cycle.
