Key Takeaways:
Crypto analysts warn that the altcoin market may be tilting toward the side of higher risk as profits dry up due to weak market narratives driving the sector.
The Era of 100x Returns From Altcoins May Well Be Over, Says 10x Research Founder
Speaking to crypto news outlet Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, head of research at blockchain analytics firm 10xResearch, noted that while tactical opportunities do exist in the market, “the era of 100x returns may well be behind us”.
Despite many anticipating an altcoin bull run this year, the chances for it may be less due to retail participation remaining “subdued” and fewer new projects captivating “non-crypto-native traders”.
According to Thielen, the past altcoin bull markets had a distinct characteristic that drew in more capital. However, this cycle has seen tighter capital inflows so far, evidenced by the low total value locked (TVL) in altcoin projects and “a dearth of venture capital investments”.
Moreover, during the last bull run, there was a narrative that the crypto market could supplant traditional financial systems, but positive narratives this time around are “shorter lived and lack substantial backing”, said Thielen.
Altcoin Very Unlikely to Outperform Bitcoin and Reach Their ATHs Ever Again
Michael van de Poppe, the founder of crypto consultancy firm MN Trading, said in a May 16th X post that investor portfolios that mainly hold altcoins are at a “relatively huge risk”. He took his case as an example to warn of the situation, stating that he is already down 20% on the overall investment “in a matter of 1-2 weeks”.
Van de Poppe only recently sold all his Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, shifting to altcoin. Despite the risk involved, he claims that he could lose between 50% and 80% of his value.
Prominent crypto investor Fabio Andreatta criticized van de Poppe for his altcoin-dominant investment strategy. While responding to the latter’s X post, Andreatta said that all he did was increase his risk, giving a stark warning that the altcoins are “very unlikely” to outperform Bitcoin and most of the alternatives “will never reach their ATHs ever again”.
Not all analysts shared the same view. In an X post earlier today, crypto analytics firm Rekt Capital predicted that a potential altcoin “hype cycle” could be in the works after a period of market consolidation. He expects the bull run to start in the second quarter of 2024.
Bitcoin’s Next ATH Expected Between September and October 2025
The analysts said that the foundation for the next altcoin rally wave is being laid “as we speak”, and that a market-wide breakout cannot occur without it first experiencing slow consolidation periods.
Rekt Capital explained its theory using Bitcoin’s previous bull cycles. In the 2015-2017 period, the apex cryptocurrency peaked 518 days after its block reward halving event, and during the 2019-2021 cycle, BTC peaked 546 days after the halving.
Bitcoin went through its fourth halving event on April 19th, and looking at past bull cycles, the next market peak for BTC could occur 518-546 days after the halving. This means Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high sometime in mid-September or mid-October 2025.
Rekt Capital analysts noted that Bitcoin is currently ahead by about 200 days in this cycle, therefore, the longer the cryptocurrency consolidates after the halving, the better it will be to “resynchronize this current cycle with the traditional halving cycle”.
Bitcoin’s market dominance, which indicates the cryptocurrency’s market share relative to the rest of the market, shows that investors are shifting capital from altcoins to Bitcoin. The dominance of the world’s largest crypto asset by market capitalization is nearing a year-to-date ATH.
As per TradingView data, this figure currently stands at 56.06% – up 2.12% over the past 7 days.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $65,475 – down 0.6% in the last 24 hours.
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